My experience is that if driven at normal levels, any loss of output
that would cause a noticeable reduction in the effectiveness of the
signal will take YEARS. So long that many of the LEDS in the array will
have begun to fail due to wire de-bonding and other failure modes.
I'm not sure what you mean by "normal" levels. Normal for what? Signal
level LEDs or high brightness LEDs that are in competition to replace
incandescent and fluorescent light sources for general lighting
applications? You cannot compare your experience with signal level
LEDs with the demonstrated performance degradation of high brightness
LEDs, which you may consider "overdriven".
And, let me preempt another discussion here. Sooner or later someone
is going to say that light output from the LED die itself does not
depreciate; all the depreciation in output is due to the package
becoming less transparent or the phosphor used in white LEDs
degrading. Research at Sandia and other places tends to support this
argument, but I want to point out that the same is true for most
"conventional" light sources.
There is no decrease over life in the visible output of high pressure
mercury, metal halide or high pressure sodium discharges. And there is
very little to no decrease in visible light output from an
incandescent filament over life. In all these light sources the
measured lumen depreciation is due entirely or almost entirely to
absorption of light the light generated by the basic "source" by the
arc tube or bulb. These sources are then like high brightness LEDs
that do not use phosphor.
A somewhat similar situation occurs in fluorescent lamps. The UV and
visible output of the low pressure mercury rare gas discharge remains
constant over the life of the lamp. All the depreciation in output is
due to degradation of the phosphor and loss of transparency of the
phosphor and the lamp bulb. You can then compare the degradation
problems of fluorescent lamps to white LEDs that use phosphor. They
suffer degradation due to both darkening of the material used to
encapsulate the LED plus degradation of the phosphor.