GM decides not to sell European Vauxhall and Opel subsidiaries after all

I wonder what the impact of GM's decision not to sell Opel and Vauxhall --
revealed last night -- will be on its own finances and on Chrysler's
situation.

(I realise Chrysler does not manufacture outside the US.)

DAS

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Canada...

 

I was told the buyer the Germans wanted to buy it also has ties to the
Russian gov. which is not in GMs best interest. Also the largest
shareholder, the US treasury , was not consulted in this decision. so who
knows what they will say to GM. i think they are a little too optimistic
about the economy turning around just because of cash for clunks they had
positive numbers for the first time in 22 months. watch what they report
for the 4th qrtr. that will be the test.


i am more concerned with Marchionne's 5 year plan for Chrysler being
announced today.......


Chrysler gives Marchionne chance to prove skeptics wrong again
TURIN -- Tell most analysts that Chrysler Group's sales are going to rise to
about 3 million in 2014 from roughly 1.5 million this year and here is the
reaction you will get: No chance. That kind of skepticism is sure to follow
the presentation of the struggling U.S. automaker's five-year plan by CEO
Sergio Marchionne today in Auburn Hills, Michigan.

Marchionne's sales target is not outrageous to him. He is used to making
bold promises and then pushing himself and his team until the doubters have
to become believers.
We have seen this before.

In November 2006, Marchionne gathered 250 financial analysts and investors
in Turin to present a five-year plan for Fiat's then-ailing auto division.

Marchionne promised Fiat would start producing a net profit of $15 million a
day by 2010, up from the $6.5 million it was losing daily when he took over
in June 2004.

After the presentation many industry watchers were skeptical.

Max Warburton, at the time an analyst at UBS in London, said that hitting
Fiat's ambitious 2010 target looked "at least as complex as splitting the
atom."

Still, Marchionne delivered more than promised in 2006 and 2007. Even the
2008 goal looked attainable before the global economic collapse in September
put Fiat's 2010 targets out of reach. Warburton, now at Bernstein Research
in London, admits that he was in the process of eating his words before the
economy turned.

Chrysler is no Fiat

Despite Marchionne's dramatic turnaround of Fiat, Warburton is not sure the
CEO can do the same for Chrysler.

"While superficially there may appear to be some similarities -- a damaged
brand, a product hiatus, weak quality, low employee morale -- there are also
some vast differences" between the two automakers, he said.

Warburton notes that even when it was sick, Fiat still had a huge share in
its home market, something Chrysler lacks.

Marchionne also arrived in time to benefit from key models. Fiat has just
launched the Panda minicar, which would win the 2004 European Car of the
Year, and was about the debut the Punto subcompact, which quickly became one
of the top-selling cars in Europe.

Chrysler does not have a breakout model hiding behind the curtain.

Finally, says Warburton, Marchionne's reign at Fiat has coincided with a
massive increase in the company's business in Brazil. The automaker spent
years investing in the country and now is benefiting from its booming
economy and its strong demand for new vehicles.

Chrysler does not have a stronghold in a developing market that is on the
verge of a massive boom. It sells about 90 percent of its cars in North
America.

Chrysler is in position to benefit if the U.S. economy bounces back
strongly.

In a volume-driven industry, rising sales can fix a lot of problems, says
another analyst.

Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley sees the restructured Chrysler breaking even
once the U.S. market tops 11 million annual sales.

With some forecasts as high as 12.9 million next year and 14.5 million in
2011, Jonas expects Chrysler to report a $841 million operating profit in
2010 and a $952 million net profit a year later.

If Jonas is correct, Marchionne would need just 30 months to accomplish
something that right now seems like mission impossible.

 

Mexico

 

Huh? How about Dodge Ram production in Saltillo, Mexico?

 

OK, outside NAFTA.

Re Canada, it's southern Ontario, isn't it?

As a European immigrant to Canada told me not so long ago... there is the US
+ Southern Ontario...and then there's Canada...

(Don't say that too loudly in front of Canadians...)

My point really was that Chrysler does not have a string of manufacturing
plants around the globe like GM and Ford do.

DAS

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Interesting points...especially about the US govt apparently not having been
in the loop. (Like the management of the two UK banks with large govt
shareholdings, they haven't got to grips with the fact that they can't treat
the big shareholder quite so cavalierly.)

At the moment the British trades unions are very pleased, though they do
realise nothing is secured. But as one labour leader said, "better the
devil you know..."

The German government is embarrassed but, as a news commentator pointed out,
at least the news came out after the recent regional elections in Germany.
The support of the buy-out, with huge support from the German govt, was a
major election issue.

DAS

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Then that's what you should have said.

--
Bill Putney
(To reply by e-mail, replace the last letter of the alphabet in my
address with the letter 'x')